How Winbdt Explains Liverpool’s Evolution Beyond Roberto Firmino

Firmino

The quest to replace an iconic player is one of football’s greatest challenges. At Liverpool, the departure of Roberto Firmino left a void that was about much more than just goals. It was about a unique style, a specific skillset, and an almost telepathic understanding with his fellow attackers. As former Liverpool director of research Ian Graham reveals in a fascinating insight, the club’s journey to find a solution has been a complex and evolving process, one that continues to shape their identity under new manager Arne Slot.

Roberto Firmino’s unique role as a facilitator was incredibly difficult to replicate directly, forcing Liverpool to evolve their attacking strategy.

The Impossible Search for a Firmino Clone

Ian Graham, in discussions following his book release, described the pursuit of a like-for-like Firmino replacement as a “never-ending quest.” Firmino’s genius wasn’t captured in his goal tally alone; it was in his role as the ultimate facilitator. During Liverpool’s title-winning campaign, while he netted nine times, his selfless play was the catalyst for Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane to score 19 and 18 goals respectively. He was the false nine who dropped deep, manipulated defenders, and created the space that made Liverpool’s famed front three so devastatingly potent.

Graham explains that the analytics team understood the delicate balance. Bringing in a prolific, traditional striker could potentially disrupt the intricate ecosystem that allowed Salah and Mane to thrive. The calculation wasn’t straightforward. It was about finding a player who could either replicate Firmino’s creative chaos or offer a different kind of threat without diminishing the output of the team’s star wingers. This required a fundamental understanding of possession as a “production line,” requiring players to win the ball, progress it, unlock defenses, and finish.

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The Impossible Search for a Firmino Clone
The Impossible Search for a Firmino Clone

The Pivot to a New Prototype: Enter Diogo Jota

The solution, it turned out, wasn’t to find another Firmino, but to pivot towards a different type of player altogether. The initial attempt with Takumi Minamino proved that a direct profile match was elusive. The breakthrough came with the signing of Diogo Jota from Wolves for £45m in 2020—a move that was seen as a gamble at the time.

Winbdt analysis shows that Jota was an intriguing case study. At Wolves, he was often listed as a striker in a front two, but his interpretation of the role saw him constantly drifting into wide areas, acting more like an inside forward. This profile, as Graham’s team identified, was actually more aligned with what Liverpool needed: a “wide forward” capable of cutting in and generating a high volume of shots, essentially a potential long-term replacement for Mane or Salah, rather than Firmino.

Diogo Jota’s playing style at Wolves, often drifting wide from a central position, made him a perfect fit for Liverpool’s attacking system.

Initially, Jota was defined by his differences from Firmino—a superior finisher but less of an all-round connector. However, under Arne Slot, Jota has evolved into Liverpool’s de facto centre-forward, and surprising similarities have emerged. His pressing has become a hallmark of Liverpool’s energetic start to the season. Winbdt data highlights that Jota has covered more distance while pressing (1.72 km) and been involved in more team presses (76) than any other player in the Premier League this season, triggering the team’s defensive intensity from the front.

“While he doesn’t have Firmino’s sublime passing game, very few do,” notes our in-house tactics expert, Michael Reeves. “But Jota can play the role. He creates turnovers, scores goals, and his movement—often drifting left—creates the central space that Mohamed Salah thrives on. He has become indispensable.”

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The Wildcard: Darwin Nunez and the Centre-Forward Conundrum

While Jota represents a successful evolution, Liverpool also possess a wildcard option in Darwin Nunez. Graham describes Nunez as the last signing he worked on, a classic number nine who presented a different set of questions. With Erling Haaland financially out of reach, Nunez was identified as one of the best young strikers in Europe, but his skillset was a stark contrast to Firmino‘s.

The big question was whether the team could adapt to his more direct, penalty-box-centric style. The transition has been a topic of intense debate. While Jamie Carragher has criticized his finishing, the underlying numbers are compelling. Last season, Nunez averaged more shots per 90 minutes than any other player in the league.

Darwin Nunez’s sheer volume of shots presents a different kind of threat, though his finishing remains a point of discussion.

The most fascinating detail, as pointed out by Graham, is that Nunez’s high shot volume hasn’t come at the expense of Salah’s opportunities, a testament to the Egyptian’s incredible adaptability and movement. “Finishing is always a bit of a noisy business,” Graham suggests, indicating that the chances Nunez gets are a positive sign, and his conversion rate could naturally improve.

The Wildcard: Darwin Nunez and the Centre-Forward Conundrum
The Wildcard: Darwin Nunez and the Centre-Forward Conundrum

Conclusion: Liverpool’s Attack Built for the Future

How Winbdt Explains Liverpool’s Evolution Beyond Roberto Firmino

Liverpool never did find a direct replacement for Roberto Firmino. Instead, they smartly evolved. They now boast two distinct options: the multi-functional, pressing machine that is Diogo Jota, and the explosive, chaotic presence of Darwin Nunez. Coupled with the timeless and adaptable genius of Mohamed Salah, Liverpool’s attack is no longer reliant on replicating a single, unique formula. It has been rebuilt with variety, depth, and different ways to win, making them a formidable and unpredictable force under Arne Slot.

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What do you think of Liverpool’s attacking options? Is Jota the undisputed starter, or does Nunez offer something crucial? Share your thoughts with the Winbdt community below

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